{
  "schema": "cassandra-index-validation",
  "schema_version": 1,
  "site": "https://cassindex.ru",
  "license": {
    "name": "CC BY 4.0",
    "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode",
    "attribution": "Cassandra Index — https://cassindex.ru, лицензия CC BY 4.0",
    "note": "Атрибуция обязательна: при переиспользовании укажите «Cassandra Index, версия, дата недели, https://cassindex.ru» и лицензию CC BY 4.0.",
    "placeholder": false
  },
  "methodology": "3.0",
  "weeks": [
    "2026-08-30",
    "2026-09-06",
    "2026-09-13",
    "2026-09-20",
    "2026-09-27",
    "2026-10-04",
    "2026-10-11",
    "2026-10-18",
    "2026-10-25"
  ],
  "thresholds": {
    "min_pairs": 6,
    "preliminary_below": 20,
    "lags": [
      -2,
      -1,
      0,
      1,
      2
    ]
  },
  "comparators": [
    {
      "id": "gpr",
      "title": "Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR)",
      "granularity": "week",
      "construct": {
        "ru": "Доля газетных публикаций о геополитических рисках (война, терроризм, давление), взвешенная по частотности публикаций; дневной индекс GPRD."
      },
      "provenance": {
        "name": "Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR)",
        "url": "https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm",
        "data_url": "https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/gpr_files/data_gpr_daily_recent.xls",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-18",
        "as_of": "2026-10-13",
        "license": "Caldara & Iacoviello, GPR — условия использования на странице источника (matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm)"
      },
      "overlap": {
        "periods": 7,
        "from": "2026-08-30",
        "to": "2026-10-11"
      },
      "levels": {
        "n": 7,
        "pearson": -0.148,
        "spearman": 0.126,
        "p_permutation": 0.7421,
        "status": "preliminary"
      },
      "deltas": {
        "n": 6,
        "pearson": -0.599,
        "spearman": -0.638,
        "p_permutation": 0.2314,
        "status": "preliminary"
      },
      "direction": {
        "hits": 1,
        "total": 6,
        "skipped": 0,
        "rate": 0.167,
        "status": "descriptive"
      },
      "lead_lag": {
        "by_lag": [
          {
            "lag": -2,
            "n": 4,
            "pearson": null
          },
          {
            "lag": -1,
            "n": 5,
            "pearson": null
          },
          {
            "lag": 0,
            "n": 6,
            "pearson": -0.599
          },
          {
            "lag": 1,
            "n": 5,
            "pearson": null
          },
          {
            "lag": 2,
            "n": 4,
            "pearson": null
          }
        ],
        "best_lag": 0,
        "best": -0.599,
        "status": "preliminary"
      },
      "discrepancies": [
        {
          "period": "2026-10-11",
          "index_delta": 10,
          "external_delta": -26.45
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-10-04",
          "index_delta": -1,
          "external_delta": 7.22
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-09-27",
          "index_delta": -9,
          "external_delta": 13.49
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-09-13",
          "index_delta": 1,
          "external_delta": -4.52
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-09-06",
          "index_delta": -9,
          "external_delta": 22.36
        }
      ],
      "note": null
    },
    {
      "id": "acled",
      "title": "ACLED — события политического насилия",
      "granularity": "month",
      "construct": {
        "ru": "Число зафиксированных событий политического насилия за месяц (все типы, глобально) и число погибших; лист Non_HRP."
      },
      "provenance": {
        "name": "ACLED — события политического насилия",
        "url": "https://data.humdata.org/dataset/3e6bfc98-f837-495d-b8de-71e5ac026f59",
        "data_url": "https://data.humdata.org/dataset/3e6bfc98-f837-495d-b8de-71e5ac026f59/resource/political-violence-events-and-fatalities.xlsx",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-18",
        "as_of": "2026-10-09",
        "license": "ACLED Terms of Use (атрибуция обязательна); зеркало HDX"
      },
      "overlap": {
        "periods": 3,
        "from": "2026-08",
        "to": "2026-10"
      },
      "levels": {
        "n": 3,
        "pearson": null,
        "spearman": null,
        "p_permutation": null,
        "status": "insufficient"
      },
      "deltas": {
        "n": 2,
        "pearson": null,
        "spearman": null,
        "p_permutation": null,
        "status": "insufficient"
      },
      "direction": {
        "hits": 1,
        "total": 2,
        "skipped": 0,
        "rate": 0.5,
        "status": "descriptive"
      },
      "lead_lag": {
        "by_lag": [
          {
            "lag": -2,
            "n": 0,
            "pearson": null
          },
          {
            "lag": -1,
            "n": 1,
            "pearson": null
          },
          {
            "lag": 0,
            "n": 2,
            "pearson": null
          },
          {
            "lag": 1,
            "n": 1,
            "pearson": null
          },
          {
            "lag": 2,
            "n": 0,
            "pearson": null
          }
        ],
        "best_lag": null,
        "best": null,
        "status": "insufficient"
      },
      "discrepancies": [
        {
          "period": "2026-10",
          "index_delta": 11.5,
          "external_delta": -3837
        }
      ],
      "note": "Пересечение короче порога: 3 пар при минимуме 6; коэффициент не публикуется. Ряд 2026-10 неполный (as_of 2026-10-09)"
    },
    {
      "id": "crisiswatch",
      "title": "CrisisWatch (International Crisis Group)",
      "granularity": "month",
      "construct": {
        "ru": "Число стран, где ситуация ухудшилась по оценке ICG за месяц (CrisisWatch Trends); improved/resolution — для полноты картины."
      },
      "provenance": {
        "name": "CrisisWatch (International Crisis Group)",
        "url": "https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch",
        "data_url": "https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch/september-trends-and-october-alerts-2026",
        "retrieved": "2026-10-18",
        "as_of": "2026-09",
        "license": "International Crisis Group, CrisisWatch — условия использования на crisisgroup.org"
      },
      "overlap": {
        "periods": 2,
        "from": "2026-08",
        "to": "2026-09"
      },
      "levels": {
        "n": 2,
        "pearson": null,
        "spearman": null,
        "p_permutation": null,
        "status": "insufficient"
      },
      "deltas": {
        "n": 1,
        "pearson": null,
        "spearman": null,
        "p_permutation": null,
        "status": "insufficient"
      },
      "direction": {
        "hits": 0,
        "total": 1,
        "skipped": 0,
        "rate": 0,
        "status": "insufficient"
      },
      "lead_lag": {
        "by_lag": [
          {
            "lag": -2,
            "n": 0,
            "pearson": null
          },
          {
            "lag": -1,
            "n": 0,
            "pearson": null
          },
          {
            "lag": 0,
            "n": 1,
            "pearson": null
          },
          {
            "lag": 1,
            "n": 0,
            "pearson": null
          },
          {
            "lag": 2,
            "n": 0,
            "pearson": null
          }
        ],
        "best_lag": null,
        "best": null,
        "status": "insufficient"
      },
      "discrepancies": [
        {
          "period": "2026-09",
          "index_delta": -4,
          "external_delta": 1
        }
      ],
      "note": "Пересечение короче порога: 2 пар при минимуме 6; коэффициент не публикуется."
    }
  ],
  "summary": {
    "comparators": 3,
    "with_coefficients": 1,
    "insufficient": 2
  }
}