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    "attribution": "Cassandra Index — https://cassindex.ru, лицензия CC BY 4.0",
    "note": "Атрибуция обязательна: при переиспользовании укажите «Cassandra Index, версия, дата недели, https://cassindex.ru» и лицензию CC BY 4.0.",
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        }
      ],
      "waterfall": null,
      "what_would_change": {
        "state": "danger",
        "thresholds": {
          "down": {
            "state": "tense",
            "index": 41,
            "gap_pp": -10
          },
          "up": {
            "state": "very",
            "index": 61,
            "gap_pp": 10
          }
        },
        "criteria": [
          {
            "id": "D4.3",
            "name": {
              "ru": "Разрыв цепочек поставок",
              "en": "Supply chain disruption"
            },
            "driver": "D4",
            "dir": "esc",
            "value": 0.67,
            "impact_pp": -3.7,
            "effect": "down",
            "crosses_state": false,
            "breaks_driver": false
          },
          {
            "id": "D5.1",
            "name": {
              "ru": "Эскалация военной риторики",
              "en": "Escalation of war rhetoric"
            },
            "driver": "D5",
            "dir": "esc",
            "value": 0.33,
            "impact_pp": -3.6,
            "effect": "down",
            "crosses_state": false,
            "breaks_driver": false
          },
          {
            "id": "D1.4",
            "name": {
              "ru": "Актуальные боевые действия",
              "en": "Active hostilities"
            },
            "driver": "D1",
            "dir": "esc",
            "value": 0,
            "impact_pp": -3.3,
            "effect": "down",
            "crosses_state": false,
            "breaks_driver": false
          }
        ],
        "method": "criterion-zeroed"
      },
      "sources": {
        "count": 29,
        "clusters": 4,
        "state_affiliated": 6
      },
      "trend": [
        {
          "date": "2026-06-14",
          "value": 47
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-21",
          "value": 49
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-28",
          "value": 50
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-05",
          "value": 50
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-12",
          "value": 53
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-19",
          "value": 55
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-26",
          "value": 56
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-02",
          "value": 57
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-09",
          "value": 58
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-16",
          "value": 60
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-23",
          "value": 62
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-30",
          "value": 51,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "week": "2026-09-06",
      "published": "2026-09-06",
      "through": "2026-09-06",
      "methodology": "3.0",
      "regions_taxonomy": "1.0",
      "data_state": "published",
      "index": 42,
      "delta": -9,
      "state": "danger",
      "q": 1,
      "confidence": "full",
      "coverage_criteria": {
        "covered": 41,
        "total": 46
      },
      "regions": [
        {
          "id": "europe",
          "index": 44,
          "delta": -4,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "east-asia",
          "index": 33,
          "delta": -9,
          "background": true
        },
        {
          "id": "middle-east",
          "index": 40,
          "delta": -9,
          "background": true
        },
        {
          "id": "north-america",
          "index": 23,
          "delta": -9,
          "background": true
        },
        {
          "id": "south-asia",
          "index": 45,
          "delta": -4,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "africa",
          "index": 44,
          "delta": -9,
          "background": false
        }
      ],
      "precursor": null,
      "precursor_present": false,
      "drivers": [
        {
          "label": {
            "ru": "Режим тишины 5–8 сентября и локальное перемирие на ЗАЭС",
            "en": "Silence regime of 5–8 September and local ceasefire at the ZNPP"
          },
          "contribution": "high"
        },
        {
          "label": {
            "ru": "Инцидент в Лейпциге вызвал дипломатический разрыв с Германией",
            "en": "Leipzig incident triggered a diplomatic rupture with Germany"
          },
          "contribution": "high"
        },
        {
          "label": {
            "ru": "Учения НАТО в Прибалтике и рост оборонных бюджетов",
            "en": "NATO drills in the Baltics and rising defence budgets"
          },
          "contribution": "medium"
        }
      ],
      "driver_breakdown": [
        {
          "id": "D1",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д1. Военная активность",
            "en": "D1. Military activity"
          },
          "score": 0.366,
          "confidence": "high",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.19,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 6,
            "total": 6
          },
          "contribution_pp": 16.6,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D1.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Учения необычного масштаба",
                "en": "Exercises of unusual scale"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.134,
              "share": 0.366
            },
            {
              "id": "D1.4",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Актуальные боевые действия",
                "en": "Active hostilities"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.4,
              "contribution": 0.08,
              "share": 0.219
            },
            {
              "id": "D1.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Наращивание военной логистики",
                "en": "Military logistics build-up"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.066,
              "share": 0.18
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D2",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д2. Ядерная сигнальная активность",
            "en": "D2. Nuclear signaling activity"
          },
          "score": 0,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.133,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 5,
            "total": 5
          },
          "contribution_pp": 0,
          "top_criteria": []
        },
        {
          "id": "D3",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д3. Дипломатическая эскалация и деэскалация",
            "en": "D3. Diplomatic escalation and de-escalation"
          },
          "score": 0,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.133,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 5,
            "total": 5
          },
          "contribution_pp": 0,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D3.4",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Переговоры и посредничество",
                "en": "Talks and mediation"
              },
              "dir": "deesc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": -0.167,
              "share": -0.438
            },
            {
              "id": "D3.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Ультиматумы",
                "en": "Ultimatums"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.11,
              "share": 0.288
            },
            {
              "id": "D3.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Разрыв дипломатических отношений",
                "en": "Breakdown of diplomatic relations"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.14,
              "contribution": 0.047,
              "share": 0.122
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D4",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д4. Экономические индикаторы конфликта",
            "en": "D4. Economic indicators of conflict"
          },
          "score": 0.238,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.133,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 6,
            "total": 6
          },
          "contribution_pp": 7.5,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D4.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Военные расходы",
                "en": "Military spending"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.066,
              "share": 0.277
            },
            {
              "id": "D4.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Разрыв цепочек поставок",
                "en": "Supply chain disruption"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.066,
              "share": 0.277
            },
            {
              "id": "D4.6",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Стресс на финансовых и сырьевых рынках",
                "en": "Financial and commodity market stress"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.066,
              "share": 0.277
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D5",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д5. Информационная и киберсфера",
            "en": "D5. Information and cyber sphere"
          },
          "score": 0.333,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.133,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 4,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": 10.5,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D5.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Эскалация военной риторики",
                "en": "Escalation of war rhetoric"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.223,
              "share": 0.67
            },
            {
              "id": "D5.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Дезинформационные кампании",
                "en": "Disinformation campaigns"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.11,
              "share": 0.33
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D6",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д6. Мобилизация общества",
            "en": "D6. Societal mobilization"
          },
          "score": 0.33,
          "confidence": "low",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.076,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 2,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": 5.9,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D6.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Военное положение и мобилизация",
                "en": "Martial law and mobilisation"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.33,
              "share": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D7",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д7. Распространение и вовлечение третьих сторон",
            "en": "D7. Proliferation and third-party involvement"
          },
          "score": 0.067,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.133,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 4,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": 2.1,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D7.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Вовлечение новых государств",
                "en": "Entry of new states"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.1,
              "contribution": 0.033,
              "share": 0.5
            },
            {
              "id": "D7.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Атаки за пределами театра",
                "en": "Attacks beyond the theatre"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.1,
              "contribution": 0.033,
              "share": 0.5
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D8",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д8. Подтверждённые деэскалирующие исходы",
            "en": "D8. Confirmed de-escalating outcomes"
          },
          "score": 0.418,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": null,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 4,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": -7,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D8.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Прекращение огня",
                "en": "Ceasefire"
              },
              "dir": "deesc",
              "value": 1,
              "contribution": 0.25,
              "share": 0.599
            },
            {
              "id": "D8.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Наблюдение и верификация",
                "en": "Monitoring and verification"
              },
              "dir": "deesc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.168,
              "share": 0.401
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D9",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д9. Косвенные индикаторы подготовки",
            "en": "D9. Indirect preparation indicators"
          },
          "score": 0.398,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.06,
          "weight_effective": 0.068,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 5,
            "total": 8
          },
          "contribution_pp": 6.4,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D9.6a",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Информационный суверенитет",
                "en": "Information sovereignty"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.134,
              "share": 0.337
            },
            {
              "id": "D9.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Финансовая изоляция",
                "en": "Financial isolation"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.066,
              "share": 0.166
            },
            {
              "id": "D9.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Транспорт и страхование",
                "en": "Transport and insurance"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.066,
              "share": 0.166
            }
          ]
        }
      ],
      "waterfall": {
        "from": {
          "week": "2026-08-30",
          "index": 51
        },
        "to": {
          "week": "2026-09-06",
          "index": 42
        },
        "steps": [
          {
            "driver": "D1",
            "contribution_pp": 0.8
          },
          {
            "driver": "D2",
            "contribution_pp": -1
          },
          {
            "driver": "D3",
            "contribution_pp": -1
          },
          {
            "driver": "D4",
            "contribution_pp": -5.5
          },
          {
            "driver": "D5",
            "contribution_pp": 3.2
          },
          {
            "driver": "D6",
            "contribution_pp": 0.7
          },
          {
            "driver": "D7",
            "contribution_pp": -2.1
          },
          {
            "driver": "D8",
            "contribution_pp": -4.6
          },
          {
            "driver": "D9",
            "contribution_pp": 3.4
          }
        ],
        "residual_pp": -2.9,
        "residual_reason": "saturation-inertia-coverage-rounding"
      },
      "what_would_change": {
        "state": "danger",
        "thresholds": {
          "down": {
            "state": "tense",
            "index": 41,
            "gap_pp": -1
          },
          "up": {
            "state": "very",
            "index": 61,
            "gap_pp": 19
          }
        },
        "criteria": [
          {
            "id": "D5.1",
            "name": {
              "ru": "Эскалация военной риторики",
              "en": "Escalation of war rhetoric"
            },
            "driver": "D5",
            "dir": "esc",
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            "impact_pp": -4.9,
            "effect": "down",
            "crosses_state": true,
            "breaks_driver": false
          },
          {
            "id": "D1.2",
            "name": {
              "ru": "Учения необычного масштаба",
              "en": "Exercises of unusual scale"
            },
            "driver": "D1",
            "dir": "esc",
            "value": 0.67,
            "impact_pp": -4.2,
            "effect": "down",
            "crosses_state": true,
            "breaks_driver": false
          },
          {
            "id": "D6.1",
            "name": {
              "ru": "Военное положение и мобилизация",
              "en": "Martial law and mobilisation"
            },
            "driver": "D6",
            "dir": "esc",
            "value": 0.33,
            "impact_pp": -4.1,
            "effect": "down",
            "crosses_state": true,
            "breaks_driver": false
          }
        ],
        "method": "criterion-zeroed"
      },
      "sources": {
        "count": 36,
        "clusters": 4,
        "state_affiliated": 9
      },
      "trend": [
        {
          "date": "2026-06-21",
          "value": 50
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-28",
          "value": 52
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-05",
          "value": 53
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-12",
          "value": 53
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-19",
          "value": 56
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-26",
          "value": 58
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-02",
          "value": 59
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-09",
          "value": 60
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-16",
          "value": 61
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-23",
          "value": 63
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-30",
          "value": 51,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-06",
          "value": 42,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "week": "2026-09-13",
      "published": "2026-09-13",
      "through": "2026-09-13",
      "methodology": "3.0",
      "regions_taxonomy": "1.0",
      "data_state": "published",
      "index": 43,
      "delta": 1,
      "state": "danger",
      "q": 1,
      "confidence": "full",
      "coverage_criteria": {
        "covered": 41,
        "total": 46
      },
      "regions": [
        {
          "id": "europe",
          "index": 37,
          "delta": -7,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "east-asia",
          "index": 34,
          "delta": 1,
          "background": true
        },
        {
          "id": "middle-east",
          "index": 42,
          "delta": 2,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "north-america",
          "index": 24,
          "delta": 1,
          "background": true
        },
        {
          "id": "south-asia",
          "index": 46,
          "delta": 1,
          "background": true
        },
        {
          "id": "africa",
          "index": 43,
          "delta": -1,
          "background": false
        }
      ],
      "precursor": null,
      "precursor_present": false,
      "drivers": [
        {
          "label": {
            "ru": "Массированный удар 8 сентября и атака дрона на границе с Молдовой",
            "en": "Massed strike of 8 September and drone attack on the Moldovan border"
          },
          "contribution": "high"
        },
        {
          "label": {
            "ru": "Германия выдворяет дипломатов, ЕС готовит пакет до 1600 листингов",
            "en": "Germany expels diplomats as the EU prepares up to 1,600 listings"
          },
          "contribution": "high"
        },
        {
          "label": {
            "ru": "Проверка боеготовности Беларуси и пуски КНДР",
            "en": "Belarus combat-readiness checks and DPRK launches"
          },
          "contribution": "medium"
        }
      ],
      "driver_breakdown": [
        {
          "id": "D1",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д1. Военная активность",
            "en": "D1. Military activity"
          },
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          "confidence": "high",
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          "weight_effective": 0.19,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 6,
            "total": 6
          },
          "contribution_pp": 13.4,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D1.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Учения необычного масштаба",
                "en": "Exercises of unusual scale"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.134,
              "share": 0.347
            },
            {
              "id": "D1.4",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Актуальные боевые действия",
                "en": "Active hostilities"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.4,
              "contribution": 0.08,
              "share": 0.207
            },
            {
              "id": "D1.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Наращивание военной логистики",
                "en": "Military logistics build-up"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.066,
              "share": 0.171
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D2",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д2. Ядерная сигнальная активность",
            "en": "D2. Nuclear signaling activity"
          },
          "score": 0.025,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.133,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 5,
            "total": 5
          },
          "contribution_pp": 0.6,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D2.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Технические ядерные сигналы",
                "en": "Technical nuclear signals"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.1,
              "contribution": 0.025,
              "share": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D3",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д3. Дипломатическая эскалация и деэскалация",
            "en": "D3. Diplomatic escalation and de-escalation"
          },
          "score": 0,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.133,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 4,
            "total": 5
          },
          "contribution_pp": 0,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D3.4",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Переговоры и посредничество",
                "en": "Talks and mediation"
              },
              "dir": "deesc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": -0.165,
              "share": -0.673
            },
            {
              "id": "D3.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Санкции и международно-правовые решения",
                "en": "Sanctions and legal measures"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.14,
              "contribution": 0.047,
              "share": 0.19
            },
            {
              "id": "D3.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Разрыв дипломатических отношений",
                "en": "Breakdown of diplomatic relations"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.1,
              "contribution": 0.033,
              "share": 0.136
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D4",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д4. Экономические индикаторы конфликта",
            "en": "D4. Economic indicators of conflict"
          },
          "score": 0.345,
          "confidence": "medium",
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          "weight_effective": 0.133,
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            "total": 6
          },
          "contribution_pp": 8.4,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D4.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Разрыв цепочек поставок",
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              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.168,
              "share": 0.486
            },
            {
              "id": "D4.6",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Стресс на финансовых и сырьевых рынках",
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              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.168,
              "share": 0.486
            },
            {
              "id": "D4.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Новые санкции и контрсанкции",
                "en": "New sanctions and countersanctions"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.04,
              "contribution": 0.01,
              "share": 0.029
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D5",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д5. Информационная и киберсфера",
            "en": "D5. Information and cyber sphere"
          },
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          "confidence": "low",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.076,
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            "criteria": 4,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": 1.5,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D5.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Эскалация военной риторики",
                "en": "Escalation of war rhetoric"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.11,
              "share": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D6",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д6. Мобилизация общества",
            "en": "D6. Societal mobilization"
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          "confidence": "medium",
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          "weight_effective": 0.133,
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            "criteria": 4,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": 13.7,
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            {
              "id": "D6.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Военная переориентация экономики",
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              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 1,
              "contribution": 0.333,
              "share": 0.602
            },
            {
              "id": "D6.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Военное положение и мобилизация",
                "en": "Martial law and mobilisation"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.11,
              "share": 0.199
            },
            {
              "id": "D6.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Эвакуация населения",
                "en": "Evacuation of population"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.11,
              "share": 0.199
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D7",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д7. Распространение и вовлечение третьих сторон",
            "en": "D7. Proliferation and third-party involvement"
          },
          "score": 0.1,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.133,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 4,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": 2.4,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D7.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Атаки за пределами театра",
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              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.2,
              "contribution": 0.067,
              "share": 0.667
            },
            {
              "id": "D7.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Вовлечение новых государств",
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              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.1,
              "contribution": 0.033,
              "share": 0.333
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D8",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д8. Подтверждённые деэскалирующие исходы",
            "en": "D8. Confirmed de-escalating outcomes"
          },
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          "weight_effective": null,
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            "criteria": 4,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": -1.1,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D8.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Наблюдение и верификация",
                "en": "Monitoring and verification"
              },
              "dir": "deesc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.083,
              "share": 1
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          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D9",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д9. Косвенные индикаторы подготовки",
            "en": "D9. Indirect preparation indicators"
          },
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          "confidence": "medium",
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          "weight_effective": 0.068,
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            "criteria": 5,
            "total": 8
          },
          "contribution_pp": 4.1,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D9.6b",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Эвакуация элит и активов",
                "en": "Evacuation of elites and assets"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.134,
              "share": 0.404
            },
            {
              "id": "D9.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Финансовая изоляция",
                "en": "Financial isolation"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.066,
              "share": 0.199
            },
            {
              "id": "D9.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Транспорт и страхование",
                "en": "Transport and insurance"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.066,
              "share": 0.199
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          ]
        }
      ],
      "waterfall": {
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          "week": "2026-09-06",
          "index": 42
        },
        "to": {
          "week": "2026-09-13",
          "index": 43
        },
        "steps": [
          {
            "driver": "D1",
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          },
          {
            "driver": "D2",
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          {
            "driver": "D3",
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          {
            "driver": "D4",
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          },
          {
            "driver": "D5",
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          },
          {
            "driver": "D6",
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          },
          {
            "driver": "D7",
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          {
            "driver": "D8",
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          {
            "driver": "D9",
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          }
        ],
        "residual_pp": -7.8,
        "residual_reason": "saturation-inertia-coverage-rounding"
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      "what_would_change": {
        "state": "danger",
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            "state": "tense",
            "index": 41,
            "gap_pp": -2
          },
          "up": {
            "state": "very",
            "index": 61,
            "gap_pp": 18
          }
        },
        "criteria": [
          {
            "id": "D6.3",
            "name": {
              "ru": "Военная переориентация экономики",
              "en": "Military reorientation of the economy"
            },
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            "effect": "down",
            "crosses_state": true,
            "breaks_driver": false
          },
          {
            "id": "D1.2",
            "name": {
              "ru": "Учения необычного масштаба",
              "en": "Exercises of unusual scale"
            },
            "driver": "D1",
            "dir": "esc",
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            "impact_pp": -3.8,
            "effect": "down",
            "crosses_state": true,
            "breaks_driver": false
          },
          {
            "id": "D4.3",
            "name": {
              "ru": "Разрыв цепочек поставок",
              "en": "Supply chain disruption"
            },
            "driver": "D4",
            "dir": "esc",
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            "impact_pp": -3.3,
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            "crosses_state": true,
            "breaks_driver": false
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        ],
        "method": "criterion-zeroed"
      },
      "sources": {
        "count": 34,
        "clusters": 3,
        "state_affiliated": 7
      },
      "trend": [
        {
          "date": "2026-06-28",
          "value": 56
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-05",
          "value": 58
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-12",
          "value": 59
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-19",
          "value": 59
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-26",
          "value": 62
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-02",
          "value": 64
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-09",
          "value": 65
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-16",
          "value": 66
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-23",
          "value": 67
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-30",
          "value": 51,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-06",
          "value": 42,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-13",
          "value": 43,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "week": "2026-09-20",
      "published": "2026-09-20",
      "through": "2026-09-20",
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      "data_state": "published",
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      "delta": 13,
      "state": "danger",
      "q": 1,
      "confidence": "full",
      "coverage_criteria": {
        "covered": 43,
        "total": 46
      },
      "regions": [
        {
          "id": "europe",
          "index": 44,
          "delta": 7,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "east-asia",
          "index": 53,
          "delta": 19,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "middle-east",
          "index": 60,
          "delta": 18,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "north-america",
          "index": 37,
          "delta": 13,
          "background": true
        },
        {
          "id": "south-asia",
          "index": 59,
          "delta": 13,
          "background": true
        },
        {
          "id": "africa",
          "index": 57,
          "delta": 14,
          "background": false
        }
      ],
      "precursor": null,
      "precursor_present": false,
      "drivers": [
        {
          "label": {
            "ru": "Удары далеко за линией фронта участились",
            "en": "Strikes deep behind the front line intensified"
          },
          "contribution": "high"
        },
        {
          "label": {
            "ru": "Санкционное противостояние ужесточилось",
            "en": "Sanctions confrontation tightened"
          },
          "contribution": "high"
        },
        {
          "label": {
            "ru": "Напряжённость на восточном фланге НАТО выросла",
            "en": "Tension rose on NATO's eastern flank"
          },
          "contribution": "medium"
        }
      ],
      "driver_breakdown": [
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          "name": {
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            "en": "D1. Military activity"
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          "confidence": "high",
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          "weight_effective": 0.162,
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            "total": 6
          },
          "contribution_pp": 13,
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            {
              "id": "D1.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Учения необычного масштаба",
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              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 1,
              "contribution": 0.2,
              "share": 0.407
            },
            {
              "id": "D1.4",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Актуальные боевые действия",
                "en": "Active hostilities"
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              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.7,
              "contribution": 0.14,
              "share": 0.285
            },
            {
              "id": "D1.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Наращивание военной логистики",
                "en": "Military logistics build-up"
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              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.066,
              "share": 0.134
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D2",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д2. Ядерная сигнальная активность",
            "en": "D2. Nuclear signaling activity"
          },
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          "confidence": "medium",
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          "weight_effective": 0.114,
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            "total": 5
          },
          "contribution_pp": 3.5,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D2.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Публичные ядерные угрозы",
                "en": "Public nuclear threats"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.168,
              "share": 0.87
            },
            {
              "id": "D2.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Технические ядерные сигналы",
                "en": "Technical nuclear signals"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.1,
              "contribution": 0.025,
              "share": 0.13
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D3",
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            "en": "D3. Diplomatic escalation and de-escalation"
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          "weight_effective": 0.162,
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            "total": 5
          },
          "contribution_pp": 2,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D3.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Ультиматумы",
                "en": "Ultimatums"
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              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.223,
              "share": 0.483
            },
            {
              "id": "D3.4",
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                "en": "Talks and mediation"
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              "share": -0.362
            },
            {
              "id": "D3.1",
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              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.1,
              "contribution": 0.033,
              "share": 0.072
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          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D4",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д4. Экономические индикаторы конфликта",
            "en": "D4. Economic indicators of conflict"
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          "confidence": "high",
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          "weight_effective": 0.162,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 6,
            "total": 6
          },
          "contribution_pp": 10.9,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D4.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Военные расходы",
                "en": "Military spending"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.134,
              "share": 0.324
            },
            {
              "id": "D4.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Разрыв цепочек поставок",
                "en": "Supply chain disruption"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.134,
              "share": 0.324
            },
            {
              "id": "D4.6",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Стресс на финансовых и сырьевых рынках",
                "en": "Financial and commodity market stress"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.066,
              "share": 0.159
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          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D5",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д5. Информационная и киберсфера",
            "en": "D5. Information and cyber sphere"
          },
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          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.114,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 4,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": 4.3,
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            {
              "id": "D5.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Эскалация военной риторики",
                "en": "Escalation of war rhetoric"
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              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.11,
              "share": 0.471
            },
            {
              "id": "D5.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Дезинформационные кампании",
                "en": "Disinformation campaigns"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.11,
              "share": 0.471
            },
            {
              "id": "D5.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Кибероперации",
                "en": "Cyber operations"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.04,
              "contribution": 0.013,
              "share": 0.057
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D6",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д6. Мобилизация общества",
            "en": "D6. Societal mobilization"
          },
          "score": 0.553,
          "confidence": "medium",
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          "weight_effective": 0.114,
          "covered": {
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            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": 10.2,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D6.3",
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              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 1,
              "contribution": 0.333,
              "share": 0.602
            },
            {
              "id": "D6.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Военное положение и мобилизация",
                "en": "Martial law and mobilisation"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.11,
              "share": 0.199
            },
            {
              "id": "D6.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Эвакуация населения",
                "en": "Evacuation of population"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.11,
              "share": 0.199
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D7",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д7. Распространение и вовлечение третьих сторон",
            "en": "D7. Proliferation and third-party involvement"
          },
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          "confidence": "medium",
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          "weight_effective": 0.114,
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            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": 8,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D7.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Новые фронты",
                "en": "New fronts"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 1,
              "contribution": 0.333,
              "share": 0.769
            },
            {
              "id": "D7.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Атаки за пределами театра",
                "en": "Attacks beyond the theatre"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.2,
              "contribution": 0.067,
              "share": 0.154
            },
            {
              "id": "D7.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Вовлечение новых государств",
                "en": "Entry of new states"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.1,
              "contribution": 0.033,
              "share": 0.077
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D8",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д8. Подтверждённые деэскалирующие исходы",
            "en": "D8. Confirmed de-escalating outcomes"
          },
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          "confidence": "low",
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          "weight_effective": null,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 4,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": -0.9,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D8.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Наблюдение и верификация",
                "en": "Monitoring and verification"
              },
              "dir": "deesc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.083,
              "share": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D9",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д9. Косвенные индикаторы подготовки",
            "en": "D9. Indirect preparation indicators"
          },
          "score": 0.534,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.06,
          "weight_effective": 0.058,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 5,
            "total": 8
          },
          "contribution_pp": 5,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D9.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Транспорт и страхование",
                "en": "Transport and insurance"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.134,
              "share": 0.251
            },
            {
              "id": "D9.6a",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Информационный суверенитет",
                "en": "Information sovereignty"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.134,
              "share": 0.251
            },
            {
              "id": "D9.6b",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Эвакуация элит и активов",
                "en": "Evacuation of elites and assets"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.134,
              "share": 0.251
            }
          ]
        }
      ],
      "waterfall": {
        "from": {
          "week": "2026-09-13",
          "index": 43
        },
        "to": {
          "week": "2026-09-20",
          "index": 56
        },
        "steps": [
          {
            "driver": "D1",
            "contribution_pp": 0.8
          },
          {
            "driver": "D2",
            "contribution_pp": 2.4
          },
          {
            "driver": "D3",
            "contribution_pp": 1.6
          },
          {
            "driver": "D4",
            "contribution_pp": 2.8
          },
          {
            "driver": "D5",
            "contribution_pp": 2.3
          },
          {
            "driver": "D6",
            "contribution_pp": -1.4
          },
          {
            "driver": "D7",
            "contribution_pp": 4.7
          },
          {
            "driver": "D8",
            "contribution_pp": 0
          },
          {
            "driver": "D9",
            "contribution_pp": 1.1
          }
        ],
        "residual_pp": -1.3,
        "residual_reason": "saturation-inertia-coverage-rounding"
      },
      "what_would_change": {
        "state": "danger",
        "thresholds": {
          "down": {
            "state": "tense",
            "index": 41,
            "gap_pp": -15
          },
          "up": {
            "state": "very",
            "index": 61,
            "gap_pp": 5
          }
        },
        "criteria": [
          {
            "id": "D6.3",
            "name": {
              "ru": "Военная переориентация экономики",
              "en": "Military reorientation of the economy"
            },
            "driver": "D6",
            "dir": "esc",
            "value": 1,
            "impact_pp": -4.6,
            "effect": "down",
            "crosses_state": false,
            "breaks_driver": false
          },
          {
            "id": "D7.3",
            "name": {
              "ru": "Новые фронты",
              "en": "New fronts"
            },
            "driver": "D7",
            "dir": "esc",
            "value": 1,
            "impact_pp": -4.6,
            "effect": "down",
            "crosses_state": false,
            "breaks_driver": false
          },
          {
            "id": "D1.2",
            "name": {
              "ru": "Учения необычного масштаба",
              "en": "Exercises of unusual scale"
            },
            "driver": "D1",
            "dir": "esc",
            "value": 1,
            "impact_pp": -3.9,
            "effect": "down",
            "crosses_state": false,
            "breaks_driver": false
          }
        ],
        "method": "criterion-zeroed"
      },
      "sources": {
        "count": 77,
        "clusters": 4,
        "state_affiliated": 19
      },
      "trend": [
        {
          "date": "2026-07-05",
          "value": 58
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-12",
          "value": 59
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-19",
          "value": 59
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-26",
          "value": 62
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-02",
          "value": 64
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-09",
          "value": 65
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-16",
          "value": 66
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-23",
          "value": 67
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-30",
          "value": 51,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-06",
          "value": 42,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-13",
          "value": 43,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-20",
          "value": 56,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "week": "2026-09-27",
      "published": "2026-09-27",
      "through": "2026-09-27",
      "methodology": "3.0",
      "regions_taxonomy": "1.0",
      "data_state": "published",
      "index": 47,
      "delta": -9,
      "state": "danger",
      "q": 0.9071,
      "confidence": "full",
      "coverage_criteria": {
        "covered": 27,
        "total": 46
      },
      "regions": [
        {
          "id": "europe",
          "index": 45,
          "delta": 1,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "east-asia",
          "index": 44,
          "delta": -9,
          "background": true
        },
        {
          "id": "middle-east",
          "index": 48,
          "delta": -12,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "north-america",
          "index": 28,
          "delta": -9,
          "background": true
        },
        {
          "id": "south-asia",
          "index": 49,
          "delta": -10,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "africa",
          "index": 47,
          "delta": -10,
          "background": false
        }
      ],
      "precursor": null,
      "precursor_present": false,
      "drivers": [
        {
          "label": {
            "ru": "Удары далеко за линией фронта участились",
            "en": "Strikes deep behind the front line intensified"
          },
          "contribution": "high"
        },
        {
          "label": {
            "ru": "Санкционное противостояние ужесточилось",
            "en": "Sanctions confrontation tightened"
          },
          "contribution": "high"
        },
        {
          "label": {
            "ru": "Напряжённость на восточном фланге НАТО выросла",
            "en": "Tension rose on NATO's eastern flank"
          },
          "contribution": "medium"
        }
      ],
      "driver_breakdown": [
        {
          "id": "D1",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д1. Военная активность",
            "en": "D1. Military activity"
          },
          "score": 0.207,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.2,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 6,
            "total": 6
          },
          "contribution_pp": 10.1,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D1.6",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Разведение сил",
                "en": "Drawdown of forces"
              },
              "dir": "deesc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": -0.165,
              "share": -0.307
            },
            {
              "id": "D1.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Наращивание военной логистики",
                "en": "Military logistics build-up"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.134,
              "share": 0.25
            },
            {
              "id": "D1.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Перемещения войск и военных колонн",
                "en": "Troop and military column movements"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.066,
              "share": 0.123
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D2",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д2. Ядерная сигнальная активность",
            "en": "D2. Nuclear signaling activity"
          },
          "score": 0.193,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.2,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 5,
            "total": 5
          },
          "contribution_pp": 9.4,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D2.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Публичные ядерные угрозы",
                "en": "Public nuclear threats"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.168,
              "share": 0.87
            },
            {
              "id": "D2.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Технические ядерные сигналы",
                "en": "Technical nuclear signals"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.1,
              "contribution": 0.025,
              "share": 0.13
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D3",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д3. Дипломатическая эскалация и деэскалация",
            "en": "D3. Diplomatic escalation and de-escalation"
          },
          "score": 0.29,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.2,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 3,
            "total": 5
          },
          "contribution_pp": 14,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D3.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Ультиматумы",
                "en": "Ultimatums"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.223,
              "share": 0.77
            },
            {
              "id": "D3.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Разрыв дипломатических отношений",
                "en": "Breakdown of diplomatic relations"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.1,
              "contribution": 0.033,
              "share": 0.115
            },
            {
              "id": "D3.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Санкции и международно-правовые решения",
                "en": "Sanctions and legal measures"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.1,
              "contribution": 0.033,
              "share": 0.115
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D4",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д4. Экономические индикаторы конфликта",
            "en": "D4. Economic indicators of conflict"
          },
          "score": 0.273,
          "confidence": "low",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.114,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 4,
            "total": 6
          },
          "contribution_pp": 7.6,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D4.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Военные расходы",
                "en": "Military spending"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.083,
              "share": 0.303
            },
            {
              "id": "D4.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Разрыв цепочек поставок",
                "en": "Supply chain disruption"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.083,
              "share": 0.303
            },
            {
              "id": "D4.6",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Стресс на финансовых и сырьевых рынках",
                "en": "Financial and commodity market stress"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.083,
              "share": 0.303
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D5",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д5. Информационная и киберсфера",
            "en": "D5. Information and cyber sphere"
          },
          "score": 0.215,
          "confidence": "low",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.114,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 2,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": 6,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D5.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Эскалация военной риторики",
                "en": "Escalation of war rhetoric"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.165,
              "share": 0.767
            },
            {
              "id": "D5.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Кибероперации",
                "en": "Cyber operations"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.1,
              "contribution": 0.05,
              "share": 0.233
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D6",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д6. Мобилизация общества",
            "en": "D6. Societal mobilization"
          },
          "score": null,
          "confidence": "low",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 1,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": 0,
          "top_criteria": []
        },
        {
          "id": "D7",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д7. Распространение и вовлечение третьих сторон",
            "en": "D7. Proliferation and third-party involvement"
          },
          "score": 0.05,
          "confidence": "low",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.114,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 2,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": 1.4,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D7.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Атаки за пределами театра",
                "en": "Attacks beyond the theatre"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.1,
              "contribution": 0.05,
              "share": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D8",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д8. Подтверждённые деэскалирующие исходы",
            "en": "D8. Confirmed de-escalating outcomes"
          },
          "score": 0.22,
          "confidence": "low",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": null,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 3,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": -3.8,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D8.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Мирные договорённости",
                "en": "Peace arrangements"
              },
              "dir": "deesc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.11,
              "share": 0.5
            },
            {
              "id": "D8.4",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Снижение интенсивности событий",
                "en": "Sustained drop in event intensity"
              },
              "dir": "deesc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.11,
              "share": 0.5
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D9",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д9. Косвенные индикаторы подготовки",
            "en": "D9. Indirect preparation indicators"
          },
          "score": 0.165,
          "confidence": "low",
          "weight": 0.06,
          "weight_effective": 0.058,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 1,
            "total": 8
          },
          "contribution_pp": 2.3,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D9.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Транспорт и страхование",
                "en": "Transport and insurance"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.165,
              "share": 1
            }
          ]
        }
      ],
      "waterfall": {
        "from": {
          "week": "2026-09-20",
          "index": 56
        },
        "to": {
          "week": "2026-09-27",
          "index": 47
        },
        "steps": [
          {
            "driver": "D1",
            "contribution_pp": -5.2
          },
          {
            "driver": "D2",
            "contribution_pp": 2.2
          },
          {
            "driver": "D3",
            "contribution_pp": 6.1
          },
          {
            "driver": "D4",
            "contribution_pp": -4.9
          },
          {
            "driver": "D5",
            "contribution_pp": -0.3
          },
          {
            "driver": "D6",
            "contribution_pp": -8.5
          },
          {
            "driver": "D7",
            "contribution_pp": -5.9
          },
          {
            "driver": "D8",
            "contribution_pp": -1.3
          },
          {
            "driver": "D9",
            "contribution_pp": -2.9
          }
        ],
        "residual_pp": 11.7,
        "residual_reason": "saturation-inertia-coverage-rounding"
      },
      "what_would_change": {
        "state": "danger",
        "thresholds": {
          "down": {
            "state": "tense",
            "index": 41,
            "gap_pp": -6
          },
          "up": {
            "state": "very",
            "index": 61,
            "gap_pp": 14
          }
        },
        "criteria": [
          {
            "id": "D3.2",
            "name": {
              "ru": "Ультиматумы",
              "en": "Ultimatums"
            },
            "driver": "D3",
            "dir": "esc",
            "value": 0.67,
            "impact_pp": -7.3,
            "effect": "down",
            "crosses_state": true,
            "breaks_driver": false
          },
          {
            "id": "D2.1",
            "name": {
              "ru": "Публичные ядерные угрозы",
              "en": "Public nuclear threats"
            },
            "driver": "D2",
            "dir": "esc",
            "value": 0.67,
            "impact_pp": -5.4,
            "effect": "down",
            "crosses_state": false,
            "breaks_driver": false
          },
          {
            "id": "D1.6",
            "name": {
              "ru": "Разведение сил",
              "en": "Drawdown of forces"
            },
            "driver": "D1",
            "dir": "deesc",
            "value": 0.33,
            "impact_pp": 5,
            "effect": "up",
            "crosses_state": false,
            "breaks_driver": false
          }
        ],
        "method": "criterion-zeroed"
      },
      "sources": {
        "count": 24,
        "clusters": 2,
        "state_affiliated": 8
      },
      "trend": [
        {
          "date": "2026-07-12",
          "value": 59
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-19",
          "value": 59
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-26",
          "value": 62
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-02",
          "value": 64
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-09",
          "value": 65
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-16",
          "value": 66
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-23",
          "value": 67
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-30",
          "value": 51,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-06",
          "value": 42,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-13",
          "value": 43,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-20",
          "value": 56,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-27",
          "value": 47,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "week": "2026-10-04",
      "published": "2026-10-04",
      "through": "2026-10-04",
      "methodology": "3.0",
      "regions_taxonomy": "1.0",
      "data_state": "published",
      "index": 46,
      "delta": -1,
      "state": "danger",
      "q": 0.9293,
      "confidence": "full",
      "coverage_criteria": {
        "covered": 27,
        "total": 46
      },
      "regions": [
        {
          "id": "europe",
          "index": 44,
          "delta": -1,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "east-asia",
          "index": 46,
          "delta": 2,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "middle-east",
          "index": 39,
          "delta": -9,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "north-america",
          "index": 43,
          "delta": 15,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "south-asia",
          "index": 46,
          "delta": -3,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "africa",
          "index": 46,
          "delta": -1,
          "background": false
        }
      ],
      "precursor": null,
      "precursor_present": false,
      "drivers": [
        {
          "label": {
            "ru": "Ядерная риторика и удары по энергетике усилились",
            "en": "Nuclear rhetoric and energy strikes intensified"
          },
          "contribution": "high"
        },
        {
          "label": {
            "ru": "Санкции и энергетическое давление сжали рынки",
            "en": "Sanctions and energy pressure squeezed markets"
          },
          "contribution": "high"
        },
        {
          "label": {
            "ru": "Вывод войск США из Ирака на фоне торговой войны союзников",
            "en": "US troops leave Iraq amid allied trade war"
          },
          "contribution": "medium"
        }
      ],
      "driver_breakdown": [
        {
          "id": "D1",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д1. Военная активность",
            "en": "D1. Military activity"
          },
          "score": 0.265,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.154,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 4,
            "total": 6
          },
          "contribution_pp": 7.7,
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            {
              "id": "D1.2",
              "name": {
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              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.083,
              "share": 0.311
            },
            {
              "id": "D1.5",
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            {
              "id": "D1.4",
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              "value": 0.3,
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          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D2",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д2. Ядерная сигнальная активность",
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          },
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            "total": 5
          },
          "contribution_pp": 5.6,
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              "id": "D2.1",
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              "share": 0.87
            },
            {
              "id": "D2.3",
              "name": {
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          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D3",
          "name": {
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            "en": "D3. Diplomatic escalation and de-escalation"
          },
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            "total": 5
          },
          "contribution_pp": 0,
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            {
              "id": "D3.4",
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              "contribution": -0.335,
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            {
              "id": "D3.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Ультиматумы",
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              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.165,
              "share": 0.275
            },
            {
              "id": "D3.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Санкции и международно-правовые решения",
                "en": "Sanctions and legal measures"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.2,
              "contribution": 0.1,
              "share": 0.167
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D4",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д4. Экономические индикаторы конфликта",
            "en": "D4. Economic indicators of conflict"
          },
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          "weight_effective": 0.154,
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            "criteria": 5,
            "total": 6
          },
          "contribution_pp": 13.2,
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            {
              "id": "D4.3",
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                "ru": "Разрыв цепочек поставок",
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              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.134,
              "share": 0.295
            },
            {
              "id": "D4.6",
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            },
            {
              "id": "D4.4",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Конфискации и блокировка торговли",
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              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.4,
              "contribution": 0.08,
              "share": 0.176
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D5",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д5. Информационная и киберсфера",
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          },
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            "criteria": 1,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": 0,
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        },
        {
          "id": "D6",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д6. Мобилизация общества",
            "en": "D6. Societal mobilization"
          },
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            "total": 4
          },
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            {
              "id": "D6.3",
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              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 1,
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              "share": 0.752
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            {
              "id": "D6.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Эвакуация населения",
                "en": "Evacuation of population"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.165,
              "share": 0.248
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          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D7",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д7. Распространение и вовлечение третьих сторон",
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          },
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            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": 0,
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            {
              "id": "D7.4",
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              "dir": "deesc",
              "value": 1,
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              "share": -0.877
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            {
              "id": "D7.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Атаки за пределами театра",
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              "dir": "esc",
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            {
              "id": "D7.1",
              "name": {
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              "dir": "esc",
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              "contribution": 0.02,
              "share": 0.035
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          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D8",
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            "ru": "Д8. Подтверждённые деэскалирующие исходы",
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            "total": 4
          },
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            {
              "id": "D8.3",
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                "ru": "Наблюдение и верификация",
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          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D9",
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            "ru": "Д9. Косвенные индикаторы подготовки",
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          "contribution_pp": 2.4,
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              "id": "D9.2",
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              "contribution": 0.083,
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            {
              "id": "D9.6a",
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          ]
        }
      ],
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          "week": "2026-09-27",
          "index": 47
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          "week": "2026-10-04",
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            "driver": "D4",
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            "driver": "D5",
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            "driver": "D6",
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          "up": {
            "state": "very",
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        },
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              "en": "Military reorientation of the economy"
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              "en": "Talks and mediation"
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          {
            "id": "D2.1",
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        ],
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      "sources": {
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        "clusters": 4,
        "state_affiliated": 14
      },
      "trend": [
        {
          "date": "2026-07-19",
          "value": 59
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-26",
          "value": 62
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-02",
          "value": 64
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-09",
          "value": 65
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-16",
          "value": 66
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-23",
          "value": 67
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-30",
          "value": 51,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-06",
          "value": 42,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-13",
          "value": 43,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-20",
          "value": 56,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-27",
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          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-10-04",
          "value": 46,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "week": "2026-10-11",
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      "through": "2026-10-11",
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      "data_state": "published",
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      "confidence": "full",
      "coverage_criteria": {
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        "total": 46
      },
      "regions": [
        {
          "id": "europe",
          "index": 56,
          "delta": 12,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "east-asia",
          "index": 59,
          "delta": 13,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "middle-east",
          "index": 67,
          "delta": 28,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "north-america",
          "index": 52,
          "delta": 9,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "south-asia",
          "index": 56,
          "delta": 10,
          "background": true
        },
        {
          "id": "africa",
          "index": 59,
          "delta": 13,
          "background": false
        }
      ],
      "precursor": null,
      "precursor_present": false,
      "drivers": [
        {
          "label": {
            "ru": "Хуситы расширили войну до Эр-Рияда, США блокируют Ормуз",
            "en": "Houthis widened the war to Riyadh as the US blockades Hormuz"
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          "contribution": "high"
        },
        {
          "label": {
            "ru": "Ядерная сигнальная активность: пуск M51.3 и учения НАТО",
            "en": "Nuclear signalling: M51.3 test and NATO drills"
          },
          "contribution": "medium"
        },
        {
          "label": {
            "ru": "Дизельная сделка США–РФ расколола Украину и Европу",
            "en": "The US–Russia diesel deal split Ukraine and Europe"
          },
          "contribution": "high"
        }
      ],
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            "en": "D1. Military activity"
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          "confidence": "high",
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              "id": "D1.4",
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              "share": 0.352
            },
            {
              "id": "D1.2",
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                "en": "Exercises of unusual scale"
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            },
            {
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                "en": "Deployment of strategic systems"
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          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D2",
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            "total": 5
          },
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              "id": "D2.3",
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              "share": 0.602
            },
            {
              "id": "D2.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Публичные ядерные угрозы",
                "en": "Public nuclear threats"
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              "dir": "esc",
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              "share": 0.398
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          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D3",
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            "total": 5
          },
          "contribution_pp": 0,
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            {
              "id": "D3.4",
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              "share": -0.579
            },
            {
              "id": "D3.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Ультиматумы",
                "en": "Ultimatums"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.11,
              "share": 0.19
            },
            {
              "id": "D3.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Разрыв дипломатических отношений",
                "en": "Breakdown of diplomatic relations"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.2,
              "contribution": 0.067,
              "share": 0.115
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          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D4",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д4. Экономические индикаторы конфликта",
            "en": "D4. Economic indicators of conflict"
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          "confidence": "high",
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          "weight_effective": 0.2,
          "covered": {
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            "total": 6
          },
          "contribution_pp": 8.4,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D4.5",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Снятие экономических ограничений",
                "en": "Easing of economic restrictions"
              },
              "dir": "deesc",
              "value": 0.4,
              "contribution": -0.2,
              "share": -0.297
            },
            {
              "id": "D4.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Военные расходы",
                "en": "Military spending"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.134,
              "share": 0.199
            },
            {
              "id": "D4.6",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Стресс на финансовых и сырьевых рынках",
                "en": "Financial and commodity market stress"
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              "dir": "esc",
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          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D5",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д5. Информационная и киберсфера",
            "en": "D5. Information and cyber sphere"
          },
          "score": 0.22,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.14,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 3,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": 4.7,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D5.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Эскалация военной риторики",
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              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.335,
              "share": 0.609
            },
            {
              "id": "D5.4",
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                "en": "Easing of propaganda"
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              "dir": "deesc",
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              "contribution": -0.165,
              "share": -0.3
            },
            {
              "id": "D5.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Кибероперации",
                "en": "Cyber operations"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.1,
              "contribution": 0.05,
              "share": 0.091
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D6",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д6. Мобилизация общества",
            "en": "D6. Societal mobilization"
          },
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            "criteria": 1,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": 0,
          "top_criteria": []
        },
        {
          "id": "D7",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д7. Распространение и вовлечение третьих сторон",
            "en": "D7. Proliferation and third-party involvement"
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          "score": 0.667,
          "confidence": "medium",
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            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": 14.4,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D7.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Новые фронты",
                "en": "New fronts"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 1,
              "contribution": 0.333,
              "share": 0.5
            },
            {
              "id": "D7.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Атаки за пределами театра",
                "en": "Attacks beyond the theatre"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.7,
              "contribution": 0.233,
              "share": 0.35
            },
            {
              "id": "D7.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Вовлечение новых государств",
                "en": "Entry of new states"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.3,
              "contribution": 0.1,
              "share": 0.15
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D8",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д8. Подтверждённые деэскалирующие исходы",
            "en": "D8. Confirmed de-escalating outcomes"
          },
          "score": null,
          "confidence": "low",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": null,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 1,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": 0,
          "top_criteria": []
        },
        {
          "id": "D9",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д9. Косвенные индикаторы подготовки",
            "en": "D9. Indirect preparation indicators"
          },
          "score": 0.335,
          "confidence": "low",
          "weight": 0.06,
          "weight_effective": 0.041,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 1,
            "total": 8
          },
          "contribution_pp": 2.1,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D9.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Транспорт и страхование",
                "en": "Transport and insurance"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.335,
              "share": 1
            }
          ]
        }
      ],
      "waterfall": {
        "from": {
          "week": "2026-10-04",
          "index": 46
        },
        "to": {
          "week": "2026-10-11",
          "index": 56
        },
        "steps": [
          {
            "driver": "D1",
            "contribution_pp": 12.8
          },
          {
            "driver": "D2",
            "contribution_pp": -0.1
          },
          {
            "driver": "D3",
            "contribution_pp": 0
          },
          {
            "driver": "D4",
            "contribution_pp": -1.9
          },
          {
            "driver": "D5",
            "contribution_pp": 3.9
          },
          {
            "driver": "D6",
            "contribution_pp": -12.9
          },
          {
            "driver": "D7",
            "contribution_pp": 11.8
          },
          {
            "driver": "D8",
            "contribution_pp": 1.5
          },
          {
            "driver": "D9",
            "contribution_pp": 0.1
          }
        ],
        "residual_pp": -5.2,
        "residual_reason": "saturation-inertia-coverage-rounding"
      },
      "what_would_change": {
        "state": "danger",
        "thresholds": {
          "down": {
            "state": "tense",
            "index": 41,
            "gap_pp": -15
          },
          "up": {
            "state": "very",
            "index": 61,
            "gap_pp": 5
          }
        },
        "criteria": [
          {
            "id": "D1.4",
            "name": {
              "ru": "Актуальные боевые действия",
              "en": "Active hostilities"
            },
            "driver": "D1",
            "dir": "esc",
            "value": 0,
            "impact_pp": -5.9,
            "effect": "down",
            "crosses_state": false,
            "breaks_driver": false
          },
          {
            "id": "D7.3",
            "name": {
              "ru": "Новые фронты",
              "en": "New fronts"
            },
            "driver": "D7",
            "dir": "esc",
            "value": 1,
            "impact_pp": -5.5,
            "effect": "down",
            "crosses_state": false,
            "breaks_driver": false
          },
          {
            "id": "D4.5",
            "name": {
              "ru": "Снятие экономических ограничений",
              "en": "Easing of economic restrictions"
            },
            "driver": "D4",
            "dir": "deesc",
            "value": 0,
            "impact_pp": 4.3,
            "effect": "up",
            "crosses_state": true,
            "breaks_driver": false
          }
        ],
        "method": "criterion-zeroed"
      },
      "sources": {
        "count": 85,
        "clusters": 4,
        "state_affiliated": 48
      },
      "trend": [
        {
          "date": "2026-07-26",
          "value": 62
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-02",
          "value": 64
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-09",
          "value": 65
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-16",
          "value": 66
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-23",
          "value": 67
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-30",
          "value": 51,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-06",
          "value": 42,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-13",
          "value": 43,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-20",
          "value": 56,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-27",
          "value": 47,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-10-04",
          "value": 46,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-10-11",
          "value": 56,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "week": "2026-10-18",
      "published": "2026-10-18",
      "through": "2026-10-18",
      "methodology": "3.0",
      "regions_taxonomy": "2.0",
      "data_state": "published",
      "index": 64,
      "delta": 8,
      "state": "very",
      "q": 1,
      "confidence": "full",
      "coverage_criteria": {
        "covered": 34,
        "total": 46
      },
      "regions": [
        {
          "id": "russia-belarus",
          "index": 68,
          "delta": 12,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "ukraine-moldova",
          "index": 63,
          "delta": 7,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "baltic",
          "index": 67,
          "delta": 11,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "balkans",
          "index": 67,
          "delta": 11,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "eu-north-europe",
          "index": 66,
          "delta": 10,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "south-caucasus",
          "index": 61,
          "delta": 5,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "central-asia",
          "index": 63,
          "delta": 7,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "east-asia",
          "index": 66,
          "delta": 7,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "middle-east",
          "index": 69,
          "delta": 2,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "north-america",
          "index": 66,
          "delta": 14,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "south-asia",
          "index": 66,
          "delta": 10,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "africa",
          "index": 66,
          "delta": 7,
          "background": false
        }
      ],
      "precursor": null,
      "precursor_present": false,
      "drivers": [
        {
          "label": {
            "ru": "Ормузский пролив заминирован, война расширяется на Красное море",
            "en": "The Strait of Hormuz is mined and the war spreads to the Red Sea"
          },
          "contribution": "high"
        },
        {
          "label": {
            "ru": "ЕС ввёл крупнейший пакет санкций, НАТО начала ядерные учения",
            "en": "The EU adopted its largest sanctions package as NATO began nuclear drills"
          },
          "contribution": "high"
        },
        {
          "label": {
            "ru": "Санкционный маятник: США отсрочили ограничения, дроны ударили по тылу РФ",
            "en": "Sanctions pendulum: the US deferred restrictions as drones struck Russia’s rear"
          },
          "contribution": "high"
        }
      ],
      "driver_breakdown": [
        {
          "id": "D1",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д1. Военная активность",
            "en": "D1. Military activity"
          },
          "score": 0.574,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.13,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 5,
            "total": 6
          },
          "contribution_pp": 11.3,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D1.4",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Актуальные боевые действия",
                "en": "Active hostilities"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 1,
              "contribution": 0.2,
              "share": 0.348
            },
            {
              "id": "D1.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Учения необычного масштаба",
                "en": "Exercises of unusual scale"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.134,
              "share": 0.233
            },
            {
              "id": "D1.5",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Развёртывание стратегических систем",
                "en": "Deployment of strategic systems"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.134,
              "share": 0.233
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D2",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д2. Ядерная сигнальная активность",
            "en": "D2. Nuclear signaling activity"
          },
          "score": 0,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.13,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 4,
            "total": 5
          },
          "contribution_pp": 0,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D2.5",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Отход от ядерной риторики",
                "en": "Step back from nuclear rhetoric"
              },
              "dir": "deesc",
              "value": 1,
              "contribution": -0.5,
              "share": -0.644
            },
            {
              "id": "D2.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Технические ядерные сигналы",
                "en": "Technical nuclear signals"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.5,
              "contribution": 0.167,
              "share": 0.215
            },
            {
              "id": "D2.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Публичные ядерные угрозы",
                "en": "Public nuclear threats"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.11,
              "share": 0.142
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D3",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д3. Дипломатическая эскалация и деэскалация",
            "en": "D3. Diplomatic escalation and de-escalation"
          },
          "score": 0.418,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.13,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 4,
            "total": 5
          },
          "contribution_pp": 8.2,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D3.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Ультиматумы",
                "en": "Ultimatums"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.335,
              "share": 0.393
            },
            {
              "id": "D3.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Санкции и международно-правовые решения",
                "en": "Sanctions and legal measures"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.6,
              "contribution": 0.3,
              "share": 0.352
            },
            {
              "id": "D3.4",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Переговоры и посредничество",
                "en": "Talks and mediation"
              },
              "dir": "deesc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": -0.167,
              "share": -0.196
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D4",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д4. Экономические индикаторы конфликта",
            "en": "D4. Economic indicators of conflict"
          },
          "score": 0.532,
          "confidence": "high",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.185,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 6,
            "total": 6
          },
          "contribution_pp": 15,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D4.4",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Конфискации и блокировка торговли",
                "en": "Asset seizures and trade blockage"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.8,
              "contribution": 0.16,
              "share": 0.192
            },
            {
              "id": "D4.5",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Снятие экономических ограничений",
                "en": "Easing of economic restrictions"
              },
              "dir": "deesc",
              "value": 0.3,
              "contribution": -0.15,
              "share": -0.18
            },
            {
              "id": "D4.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Военные расходы",
                "en": "Military spending"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.134,
              "share": 0.161
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D5",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д5. Информационная и киберсфера",
            "en": "D5. Information and cyber sphere"
          },
          "score": 0.435,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.13,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 2,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": 8.6,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D5.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Эскалация военной риторики",
                "en": "Escalation of war rhetoric"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.335,
              "share": 0.77
            },
            {
              "id": "D5.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Кибероперации",
                "en": "Cyber operations"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.2,
              "contribution": 0.1,
              "share": 0.23
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D6",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д6. Мобилизация общества",
            "en": "D6. Societal mobilization"
          },
          "score": 0.665,
          "confidence": "low",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.074,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 2,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": 7.5,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D6.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Военная переориентация экономики",
                "en": "Military reorientation of the economy"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 1,
              "contribution": 0.5,
              "share": 0.752
            },
            {
              "id": "D6.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Эвакуация населения",
                "en": "Evacuation of population"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.165,
              "share": 0.248
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D7",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д7. Распространение и вовлечение третьих сторон",
            "en": "D7. Proliferation and third-party involvement"
          },
          "score": 0.502,
          "confidence": "high",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.185,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 4,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": 14.1,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D7.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Новые фронты",
                "en": "New fronts"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 1,
              "contribution": 0.333,
              "share": 0.401
            },
            {
              "id": "D7.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Атаки за пределами театра",
                "en": "Attacks beyond the theatre"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.7,
              "contribution": 0.233,
              "share": 0.281
            },
            {
              "id": "D7.4",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Выход третьих сторон",
                "en": "Withdrawal of third parties"
              },
              "dir": "deesc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": -0.165,
              "share": -0.198
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D8",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д8. Подтверждённые деэскалирующие исходы",
            "en": "D8. Confirmed de-escalating outcomes"
          },
          "score": 0.333,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": null,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 3,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": -3.6,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D8.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Наблюдение и верификация",
                "en": "Monitoring and verification"
              },
              "dir": "deesc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.223,
              "share": 0.67
            },
            {
              "id": "D8.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Мирные договорённости",
                "en": "Peace arrangements"
              },
              "dir": "deesc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.11,
              "share": 0.33
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D9",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д9. Косвенные индикаторы подготовки",
            "en": "D9. Indirect preparation indicators"
          },
          "score": 0.5,
          "confidence": "low",
          "weight": 0.06,
          "weight_effective": 0.038,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 4,
            "total": 8
          },
          "contribution_pp": 2.9,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D9.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Транспорт и страхование",
                "en": "Transport and insurance"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.168,
              "share": 0.335
            },
            {
              "id": "D9.6a",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Информационный суверенитет",
                "en": "Information sovereignty"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.168,
              "share": 0.335
            },
            {
              "id": "D9.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Медицинская подготовка",
                "en": "Medical preparation"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.083,
              "share": 0.165
            }
          ]
        }
      ],
      "waterfall": {
        "from": {
          "week": "2026-10-11",
          "index": 56
        },
        "to": {
          "week": "2026-10-18",
          "index": 64
        },
        "steps": [
          {
            "driver": "D1",
            "contribution_pp": -7.2
          },
          {
            "driver": "D2",
            "contribution_pp": -3.1
          },
          {
            "driver": "D3",
            "contribution_pp": 5.7
          },
          {
            "driver": "D4",
            "contribution_pp": 4.6
          },
          {
            "driver": "D5",
            "contribution_pp": 2.7
          },
          {
            "driver": "D6",
            "contribution_pp": 5.2
          },
          {
            "driver": "D7",
            "contribution_pp": 0
          },
          {
            "driver": "D8",
            "contribution_pp": -2.5
          },
          {
            "driver": "D9",
            "contribution_pp": 0.6
          }
        ],
        "residual_pp": 2,
        "residual_reason": "saturation-inertia-coverage-rounding"
      },
      "what_would_change": {
        "state": "very",
        "thresholds": {
          "down": {
            "state": "danger",
            "index": 61,
            "gap_pp": -3
          },
          "up": {
            "state": "critical",
            "index": 81,
            "gap_pp": 17
          }
        },
        "criteria": [
          {
            "id": "D7.3",
            "name": {
              "ru": "Новые фронты",
              "en": "New fronts"
            },
            "driver": "D7",
            "dir": "esc",
            "value": 1,
            "impact_pp": -6.6,
            "effect": "down",
            "crosses_state": true,
            "breaks_driver": false
          },
          {
            "id": "D3.2",
            "name": {
              "ru": "Ультиматумы",
              "en": "Ultimatums"
            },
            "driver": "D3",
            "dir": "esc",
            "value": 0.67,
            "impact_pp": -4.5,
            "effect": "down",
            "crosses_state": true,
            "breaks_driver": false
          },
          {
            "id": "D5.1",
            "name": {
              "ru": "Эскалация военной риторики",
              "en": "Escalation of war rhetoric"
            },
            "driver": "D5",
            "dir": "esc",
            "value": 0.67,
            "impact_pp": -4.5,
            "effect": "down",
            "crosses_state": true,
            "breaks_driver": false
          }
        ],
        "method": "criterion-zeroed"
      },
      "sources": {
        "count": 90,
        "clusters": 5,
        "state_affiliated": 30
      },
      "trend": [
        {
          "date": "2026-08-02",
          "value": 64
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-09",
          "value": 65
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-16",
          "value": 66
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-23",
          "value": 67
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-30",
          "value": 51,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-06",
          "value": 42,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-13",
          "value": 43,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-20",
          "value": 56,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-27",
          "value": 47,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-10-04",
          "value": 46,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-10-11",
          "value": 56,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-10-18",
          "value": 64,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "week": "2026-10-25",
      "published": "2026-10-25",
      "through": "2026-10-25",
      "methodology": "3.0",
      "regions_taxonomy": "2.0",
      "data_state": "published",
      "index": 68,
      "delta": 4,
      "state": "very",
      "q": 1,
      "confidence": "full",
      "coverage_criteria": {
        "covered": 39,
        "total": 46
      },
      "regions": [
        {
          "id": "russia-belarus",
          "index": 66,
          "delta": -2,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "ukraine-moldova",
          "index": 68,
          "delta": 5,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "baltic",
          "index": 69,
          "delta": 2,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "balkans",
          "index": 69,
          "delta": 2,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "eu-north-europe",
          "index": 68,
          "delta": 2,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "south-caucasus",
          "index": 66,
          "delta": 5,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "central-asia",
          "index": 65,
          "delta": 2,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "east-asia",
          "index": 64,
          "delta": -2,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "middle-east",
          "index": 78,
          "delta": 9,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "north-america",
          "index": 72,
          "delta": 6,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "south-asia",
          "index": 67,
          "delta": 1,
          "background": false
        },
        {
          "id": "africa",
          "index": 69,
          "delta": 3,
          "background": false
        }
      ],
      "precursor": {
        "value": 39,
        "signaling_subgroups": 7
      },
      "precursor_present": true,
      "drivers": [
        {
          "label": {
            "ru": "Вашингтон и Тегеран на пороге удара, Ормуз перекрыт",
            "en": "Washington and Tehran on the brink of a strike, Hormuz blocked"
          },
          "contribution": "high"
        },
        {
          "label": {
            "ru": "Йеменская война бьёт по аэропортам и нефти Саудовской Аравии",
            "en": "Yemen's war hits Saudi airports and Saudi oil"
          },
          "contribution": "high"
        },
        {
          "label": {
            "ru": "Олешки: гуманитарное перемирие согласовано, но фронт не стих",
            "en": "Oleshky: a humanitarian ceasefire agreed, but the front has not calmed"
          },
          "contribution": "high"
        }
      ],
      "driver_breakdown": [
        {
          "id": "D1",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д1. Военная активность",
            "en": "D1. Military activity"
          },
          "score": 0.6,
          "confidence": "high",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.171,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 4,
            "total": 6
          },
          "contribution_pp": 15.5,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D1.4",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Актуальные боевые действия",
                "en": "Active hostilities"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 1,
              "contribution": 0.25,
              "share": 0.417
            },
            {
              "id": "D1.5",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Развёртывание стратегических систем",
                "en": "Deployment of strategic systems"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.168,
              "share": 0.279
            },
            {
              "id": "D1.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Перемещения войск и военных колонн",
                "en": "Troop and military column movements"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.4,
              "contribution": 0.1,
              "share": 0.167
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D2",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д2. Ядерная сигнальная активность",
            "en": "D2. Nuclear signaling activity"
          },
          "score": 0.29,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.12,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 4,
            "total": 5
          },
          "contribution_pp": 5.3,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D2.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Публичные ядерные угрозы",
                "en": "Public nuclear threats"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.223,
              "share": 0.77
            },
            {
              "id": "D2.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Технические ядерные сигналы",
                "en": "Technical nuclear signals"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.2,
              "contribution": 0.067,
              "share": 0.23
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D3",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д3. Дипломатическая эскалация и деэскалация",
            "en": "D3. Diplomatic escalation and de-escalation"
          },
          "score": 0.173,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.12,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 5,
            "total": 5
          },
          "contribution_pp": 3.1,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D3.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Ультиматумы",
                "en": "Ultimatums"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.223,
              "share": 0.368
            },
            {
              "id": "D3.4",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Переговоры и посредничество",
                "en": "Talks and mediation"
              },
              "dir": "deesc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": -0.167,
              "share": -0.276
            },
            {
              "id": "D3.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Санкции и международно-правовые решения",
                "en": "Sanctions and legal measures"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.3,
              "contribution": 0.1,
              "share": 0.165
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D4",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д4. Экономические индикаторы конфликта",
            "en": "D4. Economic indicators of conflict"
          },
          "score": 0.4,
          "confidence": "high",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.171,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 5,
            "total": 6
          },
          "contribution_pp": 10.4,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D4.6",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Стресс на финансовых и сырьевых рынках",
                "en": "Financial and commodity market stress"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 1,
              "contribution": 0.25,
              "share": 0.313
            },
            {
              "id": "D4.5",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Снятие экономических ограничений",
                "en": "Easing of economic restrictions"
              },
              "dir": "deesc",
              "value": 0.4,
              "contribution": -0.2,
              "share": -0.25
            },
            {
              "id": "D4.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Разрыв цепочек поставок",
                "en": "Supply chain disruption"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.67,
              "contribution": 0.168,
              "share": 0.209
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D5",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д5. Информационная и киберсфера",
            "en": "D5. Information and cyber sphere"
          },
          "score": 0.6,
          "confidence": "low",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.068,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 2,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": 6.2,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D5.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Эскалация военной риторики",
                "en": "Escalation of war rhetoric"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 1,
              "contribution": 0.5,
              "share": 0.833
            },
            {
              "id": "D5.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Кибероперации",
                "en": "Cyber operations"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.2,
              "contribution": 0.1,
              "share": 0.167
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D6",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д6. Мобилизация общества",
            "en": "D6. Societal mobilization"
          },
          "score": 0.553,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.12,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 3,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": 10,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D6.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Военная переориентация экономики",
                "en": "Military reorientation of the economy"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 1,
              "contribution": 0.333,
              "share": 0.602
            },
            {
              "id": "D6.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Военное положение и мобилизация",
                "en": "Martial law and mobilisation"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.11,
              "share": 0.199
            },
            {
              "id": "D6.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Эвакуация населения",
                "en": "Evacuation of population"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.11,
              "share": 0.199
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D7",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д7. Распространение и вовлечение третьих сторон",
            "en": "D7. Proliferation and third-party involvement"
          },
          "score": 0.602,
          "confidence": "high",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": 0.171,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 4,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": 15.7,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D7.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Новые фронты",
                "en": "New fronts"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 1,
              "contribution": 0.333,
              "share": 0.358
            },
            {
              "id": "D7.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Атаки за пределами театра",
                "en": "Attacks beyond the theatre"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.8,
              "contribution": 0.267,
              "share": 0.286
            },
            {
              "id": "D7.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Вовлечение новых государств",
                "en": "Entry of new states"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.5,
              "contribution": 0.167,
              "share": 0.179
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D8",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д8. Подтверждённые деэскалирующие исходы",
            "en": "D8. Confirmed de-escalating outcomes"
          },
          "score": 0.165,
          "confidence": "low",
          "weight": 0.1175,
          "weight_effective": null,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 4,
            "total": 4
          },
          "contribution_pp": -1.8,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D8.2",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Мирные договорённости",
                "en": "Peace arrangements"
              },
              "dir": "deesc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.083,
              "share": 0.5
            },
            {
              "id": "D8.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Наблюдение и верификация",
                "en": "Monitoring and verification"
              },
              "dir": "deesc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.083,
              "share": 0.5
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "D9",
          "name": {
            "ru": "Д9. Косвенные индикаторы подготовки",
            "en": "D9. Indirect preparation indicators"
          },
          "score": 0.394,
          "confidence": "medium",
          "weight": 0.06,
          "weight_effective": 0.061,
          "covered": {
            "criteria": 8,
            "total": 8
          },
          "contribution_pp": 3.6,
          "top_criteria": [
            {
              "id": "D9.3",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Транспорт и страхование",
                "en": "Transport and insurance"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 1,
              "contribution": 0.125,
              "share": 0.317
            },
            {
              "id": "D9.6b",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Эвакуация элит и активов",
                "en": "Evacuation of elites and assets"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.5,
              "contribution": 0.063,
              "share": 0.159
            },
            {
              "id": "D9.1",
              "name": {
                "ru": "Медицинская подготовка",
                "en": "Medical preparation"
              },
              "dir": "esc",
              "value": 0.33,
              "contribution": 0.041,
              "share": 0.105
            }
          ]
        }
      ],
      "waterfall": {
        "from": {
          "week": "2026-10-18",
          "index": 64
        },
        "to": {
          "week": "2026-10-25",
          "index": 68
        },
        "steps": [
          {
            "driver": "D1",
            "contribution_pp": 2.7
          },
          {
            "driver": "D2",
            "contribution_pp": 3.4
          },
          {
            "driver": "D3",
            "contribution_pp": -3.3
          },
          {
            "driver": "D4",
            "contribution_pp": -2.9
          },
          {
            "driver": "D5",
            "contribution_pp": -1.5
          },
          {
            "driver": "D6",
            "contribution_pp": 1.6
          },
          {
            "driver": "D7",
            "contribution_pp": 1
          },
          {
            "driver": "D8",
            "contribution_pp": 1.2
          },
          {
            "driver": "D9",
            "contribution_pp": 0.5
          }
        ],
        "residual_pp": 1.3,
        "residual_reason": "saturation-inertia-coverage-rounding"
      },
      "what_would_change": {
        "state": "very",
        "thresholds": {
          "down": {
            "state": "danger",
            "index": 61,
            "gap_pp": -7
          },
          "up": {
            "state": "critical",
            "index": 81,
            "gap_pp": 13
          }
        },
        "criteria": [
          {
            "id": "D7.3",
            "name": {
              "ru": "Новые фронты",
              "en": "New fronts"
            },
            "driver": "D7",
            "dir": "esc",
            "value": 1,
            "impact_pp": -5.7,
            "effect": "down",
            "crosses_state": false,
            "breaks_driver": false
          },
          {
            "id": "D7.2",
            "name": {
              "ru": "Атаки за пределами театра",
              "en": "Attacks beyond the theatre"
            },
            "driver": "D7",
            "dir": "esc",
            "value": 0,
            "impact_pp": -4.5,
            "effect": "down",
            "crosses_state": false,
            "breaks_driver": false
          },
          {
            "id": "D1.4",
            "name": {
              "ru": "Актуальные боевые действия",
              "en": "Active hostilities"
            },
            "driver": "D1",
            "dir": "esc",
            "value": 0,
            "impact_pp": -4.2,
            "effect": "down",
            "crosses_state": false,
            "breaks_driver": false
          }
        ],
        "method": "criterion-zeroed"
      },
      "sources": {
        "count": 129,
        "clusters": 5,
        "state_affiliated": 62
      },
      "trend": [
        {
          "date": "2026-08-09",
          "value": 65
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-16",
          "value": 66
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-23",
          "value": 67
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-30",
          "value": 51,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-06",
          "value": 42,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-13",
          "value": 43,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-20",
          "value": 56,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-27",
          "value": 47,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-10-04",
          "value": 46,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-10-11",
          "value": 56,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-10-18",
          "value": 64,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-10-25",
          "value": 68,
          "methodology": "3.0"
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}